Hopes to revitalize the industry in the third quarter of 2014 have not been justified

This August has become the worst for the industry from the viewpoint of the business environment conditions. These conclusions have been drawn after the survey among the Company Heads conducted by the Center of Market Condition Studies for NRU HSE. Companies have almost stopped investments which is proven by Rosstat data as well. In August the scope of the industrial manufacture decreased by 0.2% compared with July. At this, its index in January-August of 2014 was 101.3% against the same period of the previous year. However, this August the index of the industrial manufacture was 100.0 % if compared with the previous August. Thus, according to the results of January-August 2014, despite a continuing impact of negative political factors, the dynamics of industrial manufacture has been positive against the same period of the previous year, but the growth was quite moderate.

“Companies have found themselves in the ambiguity area, so they start investing less into risky projects but start increasing wages to the administrative staff”, Georgy Ostapkovich, Director of the Center of Market Condition Studies for the Institute of Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge for NRU HSE explained to “Expert Online”. “Today the growth of wages has already reached 50% of the GDP growth rates and it becomes dangerous. Such rates were one of factors for crises in 1998 and 2008. We cannot forecast the crisis but recession is quite possible. At the manufacture rate equal to 1% according to results of the previous year, the average growth of wages was 10%”.

After the July growth the dynamics of the industrial production as a whole, except for seasonal and calendar components, became negative in August (-0.2 %). After the July decrease in the mining industry, the growth was recovered in August (1,0%) and the growth persisted in the power, gas and water manufacturing and distributional industry (0.4 %). After the July recovery of growth in manufacturing industries, the decrease reoccurred in August (-0.7 %).

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